The RSS is pissed because the BJP - besides losing Delhi and Rajasthan as expected - could not snatch Madhya Pradesh from a resurgent Congress party.

Had Vajpayee done so - and the poor fellow did not even have the help of the RSS cadre during campaigning - then the poll results could have been viewed favourably. Nagpur would have even allowed Vajpayee to strengthen his hands by sacking two of home minister L K Advani's acolytes in the cabinet - civil aviation minister Ananth Kumar and labour minister Satyanarain Jatiya.

But what were they thinking? The elections saw the BJP buried deep under the voter stampede away from the party to the Congress.

The RSS was dazed and confused, and it held a series of chintan baithak. The brainstorming led to an apparently surprising discovery - they lost because of the poor and pathetic performance of Vajpayee's government.

The RSS members suddenly noticed that Vajpayee's style of functioning had diluted their ideology of Hindutva, and that the BJP was no longer the party with a difference - it was morphing into a smudgy copy of the Congress, or worse, even the Janata Dal. The descent into political mundaneness and venality was typified by the fact that no one had taken moral responsibility for the poll debacle, despite a long tradition to do so.

Either Vajpayee would have to change his style of functioning, or the RSS would have to change Vajpayee. But does anyone change their ways at the age of 75? The Nagpur geriatrics looked at one another, and unanimously decided to replace the Prime Minister.

RSS general secretary K C Sudarshan, swung into action. Sudarshan, though the number three at Nagpur, is to become the sarsanghchalak next year - while the post is traditionally a lifetime tenure, incumbent Rajendra Singh is terribly sick, and will step down next year. Ordinarily, the number two, H V Seshadri, would have taken over; he, however, has dropped out of sight (he is identified with mosque-smashing) to the extent that he does not even attend RSS meetings anymore.

On December 3, Sudershan met Vajpayee and casually offered him an attractive retirement plan: he instructed the Prime Minister to get admitted to a hospital (preferably abroad), cite ill-health, and step down. Oh, and most importantly: request Advani to take over as the new PM.

Somehow, this radical plan was unacceptable to Vajpayee. Rather than lose his post, he lost his temper, and the discussion with Sudarshan degenerated into a slanging match.

The next day, RSS brains trust S Gurumurthy flew into Delhi from Mumbai. His Swadeshi Jagran Manch had a meeting scheduled with the Prime Minister over economic matters. Gurumurthy went off on an irrelevant tangent, and ordered Vajpayee to resign.

A few hours later, Vajpayee's aides announced that the Cabinet would be expanded, and that two of the inductees would be Pramod Mahajan and Jaswant Singh - two BJP moderates whom the RSS regards as highly as 'the barbaric Muslim invaders of the early 11th century'. Their induction in the Cabinet in April had been vetoed by the RSS on grounds that they had lost their elections. Was Vajpayee trying to bait the RSS? Was this an open declaration of war? Are these rhetorical questions?

It was clear that the only way Vajpayee would go would be if he were dragged out of office by his dhoti, kicking and screaming. The RSS decided to wait till Parliament's current session ends, on December 23, after which the BJP parliamentary party will meet and depose Vajpayee.

As for the BJP's allies, all save J Jayalalitha's AIADMK have apparently already told the RSS they would not mind seeing Vajpayee replaced. This is because they are afraid of a minor consequence of Vajpayee remaining in the saddle: they would be eaten alive by the Congress party, their principal enemy in the states, which is getting stronger with each passing day.

The RSS and the allies surmise that the Congress was broke after the recent elections. With their coming to power in Delhi and Rajasthan (they rule Orissa and Madhya Pradesh), they can be expected to collect Rs 500 - 600 crore by March 1999, when they might force an election. Though the Congress is rumoured to be thinking of holding back till next winter (when assembly elections take place in several states, including Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh), the RSS feels that the Congress cannot afford to wait and see if their honeymoon with the voters lasts that long.

The RSS has decided that sticking with Vajpayee is a lose-lose proposition: if the BJP goes to the polls, its Lok Sabha tally could plunge from 182 to 82. Thus, the desperate gamble, where a new leader during the three or four months that he is in power, could do some dramatic things - like present a shamelessly populist Budget, even though it would inevitably screw the economy. Hey, but since everyone has been shafting the country, how does one more poke matter?

And who does the RSS want to replace Vajpayee with? Hmmm … Would any Indian Muslim ever have thought that the day would come when Advani expressed regrets for the demolition of the Babri Masjid?

January will tell who wears the knickers in the Sangh Parivar.

Illustration by Siddhartha Mitra