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The list below is merely an illustrative set of faces that Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha might like to portray through his Budget for 1999-2000.
Face 1: Swadeshi Sevak
What with the two Gurus (Murthy and Swamy in that order) breathing down his neck and the larger family not exactly looking on approvingly at his performance over the last 10 months, Sinha might well want to prove that his heart is in its right swadeshi location. Some measures are fairly obvious, but may we suggest a few innovations. For instance, a scheme could be initiated (entitled Swadeshi Samrat) to grant tax incentives to those who have convincingly proved they love their motherland above all other lands. As a beginning, the Indian cricket team could be exempted from all taxes for consistently winning at home and losing abroad.
Face 2: Ally of the Alien
The premature celebration of Diwali in the Rajasthan desert last year, the vocal presence of the SJM in the family and frequent attacks on Christians have not exactly helped convince foreign investors that India is friendly towards them. Since Sinha is obviously keen to dispel this notion, he might do well to announce the reservation of some sectors exclusively for foreigners, which unfortunately for NRIs under the new dispensation excludes them as well. At the very least, he could impose huge taxes on Indians or those of Indian origin wanting to enter these sectors. A good starting point for such an exercise could be a massive tax on all Indian purveyors of rap music and economic advise.
Face 3: Guru of Growth
An economic and industrial slowdown of a magnitude not witnessed in recent years might provide an excuse for carping critics to accuse Sinha of having failed to deliver. This accusation must be sqaurely dealt with. What better way of doing so than to present a Budget that spurs demand. Ideally, there could be a huge outlay for the Government itself to buy up most of the industrial production, not excluding the output of automobile and consumer electronic factories of course. Government departments could be given enhanced outlays for installing microwave ovens and washing machines in their offices, for instance.
Face 4: Fiscal Fiend
A fiscal deficit that is running away despite subsidy cuts does not quite constitute the ideal citation for the award of the Finance Minister of the Year. Sinha would therefore not mind suggestions on how he can reign in the deficit. We must confess a signular lack of ideas, except to propose a legislation that prohibits the reporting of fiscal deficit figures above a certain pre-determined mark.
Face 5: Partner in Progress
For all his concern about being portrayed as a non-able minister, Sinha must surely be more worried about the perception (and reality) that the government he is a part of is unstable. The prescription for treating the instability, at least in the short run, should be fairly obvious. The motto should be : Pamper the partners. Of course, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Orissa have to head the list, as the Cabinet has already shown. Bihar would also need to be added to this list. Special packages for these states should convince trigger-happy allies that they are extracting their mega-tonne of flesh.
Face 6: Grateful Giver
On the other hand, pampering Opposition-ruled states or those not ruled by the BJP at the expense of those that have done his party proud might have disastrous long-term consequences. It just might convince the electorate in Gujarat, UP etc that it makes no sense to vote for Sinha's party. Clearly, these states must also be given special packages that are better than any other's, if only to prove that the BJP is not an ungrateful party.
Face 7: Farmers' Friend
As a bureaucrat-turned politician from Patna, Sinha unfortunately has some natural disadvantages in portraying himself as a natural ally of the kisan. However, the Budget gives him an excellent opportunity to overcome this innate handicap. How about hiking the fertiliser subsidy, making the rest of society pay a special cess for a Farmers' Fund and abolishing all duties on agricultural inplements?
Face 8: Middle class Messiah
Nonetheless, it would be foolhardy for Sinha to jettison his own class, surely the only natural ally he can claim. Since prices of essentials have dominated the middle class evaluation of the BJP's economic performance (with apologies to the English language), one obvious measure would be to ensure the availability of vegetables, fruits and foodgrains at drastically lowered prices, preferably below the PDS prices for those below the poverty line.
Face 9: Poorman's Protector
Since even the most right wing of economists in India must not forget to sympathise with the poorest of the poor and since Sinha himself has had some nebulous connection with the socialists at some point, he must firmly establish that his heart bleeds for the poor of the land. What better than to give them grain free and to exmept all TPDS ration card holders from paying any taxes on commodities they buy, never mind the fact that they do not buy too much to begin with.
Face 10: Responsible Reformer
In the ultimate analysis though, Sinha must be seen as the man who out-Manmohaned Manmohan Singh and out-Chidambaramed P Chidambaram. After all, the Fund-Bank duo tends to be more consistent in its support than the unfaithful Indian voter. And what is more, the support of the Fund-Bank duo is the best possible social safety net a political has-been can demand (not that Sinha is as yet a has been, he is only a will have been). Hence, huge cuts in subsidy, insiting on user costs being met and so on should definitely be a part of the message of the Budget.
PS:
Since the odd numbered faces quite clearly conflict with the even numbered ones that follow them, it might seem that Sinha would need the skills of Merlin the Magician to present all these faces in his Budget. May we humbly suggest a simpler alternative. Faces 2,4,6,8 and 10 could be incorporated in the Union Budget for 1999-2000. Faces 1,3,5,7 and 9 could make up the Union Rollback for 1999-2000. With Sinha having shown great foresight in preponing the Budget to 11 am, it should even be possible to present the Rollback the same evening.
Illustrations by Max Martin
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